Friday, 7 July 2017

The 21st century looks frightening

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Identity politics will lead to major wars in the 21st century.
(In a sense, the struggle with Islamism is itself an instance of this.)
Jeffrey Ketland


Now for the bad news: There won't be a Poland in 100 years. At a total fertility rate of 1.29, Poland will have one retiree per working-age citizen by 2075. Poland in fact has one of the world's very lowest fertility rates, which means (in Mary Eberstadt's way of looking at the problem) that it is losing its religion. President Trump's speech was magnificent, but it brings to mind Schiller's dictum that history brought forth a great moment, but the moment encountered a mediocre people. Trump is doing the right thing, but we should remember that Europe is a case not for cure but for palliative care.
David Goldman

3 comments:

  1. I doubt that declining religiosity is a big factor in Poland’s birthrate decline. Poland's birthrate was perfectly healthy under communism despite widely available abortion. The same case for Russia and other East European countries. Far bigger causes are economic insecurity as a result of globalization/ laissez faire economics and lack of affordable housing. Probably the biggest factor of all is the scourge of Western feminism and female careerism.

    It is however doomster nonsense to say Poland’s low birthrate will case Poland’s extinction. It just means there will be a smaller population. A third of the jobs in Western countries are likely to be lost to automation in the next 20 years so falling birthrates are not as big of a disaster as they are made out to be. What undoubtedly would cause Poland to cease existing would be to allow dysgenic third world immigration. The demographic threat to the West is solely due to non-white immigration, and that point must be understood clearly.

    It is misplaced alarmism over falling birthrates which helps provide false justification for the migrant invasion. The fact is that whites will never be able to outbreed non-whites for reasons that are due to evolutionary biology (R vs K reproductive strategies). Permitting mass non-white immigration only helps to push the white birthrate down even further because the increased competition for jobs, housing, welfare, health, schools etc helps to increase economic and cultural insecurity among whites of reproductive age.

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    1. There is no such thing as competition for jobs, housing etc - not in the sense you understand it. These things are not fixed! Jobs are always created, houses or apartment buildings are always being built. The world is not static. Having said that, yes, it is certainly challenging to import large numbers of people in a very short time from a very different culture, who have very different birth rates and a very different outlook on life. But that doesn't mean that those on the "right" have a free pass to display gross economic ignorance (whatever the "right" means nowadays, it just morphed into another leftist, Marxist-based philosophy heavy on memes and low on substance).

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  2. https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2017/07/07/good-news-and-bad-news-from-poland/

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